By John Moran
If you’ve been knee-deep in Google Ads for more than five minutes, you’ve probably wrestled with the platform’s love affair with conversion tracking and automated bidding. In a world where advertisers continue cranking their Target ROAS or Target CPA settings, Google’s machine learning seems designed to give the illusion of control—when, in fact, it may be quietly limiting how far you can scale.
I’ve spent the better part of a decade refining strategies that cut against the grain of what Google’s system tells you is “best practice.” So, let’s pull back the curtain on why I started disabling valuable conversions in Google Ads, adopting manual bidding, and then monitoring performance off-platform. I know it sounds radical, but if you suspect Google might be capping your reach—or throttling your ability to grow—this could be the perspective you need.
My “Aha” Moment: The Finite Pool of Known Conversions
After running hundreds of campaigns across multiple agencies, I saw a consistent pattern: the same accounts that had faulty or completely absent conversion tracking scaled more easily at lower CPCs than others that were rigorously feeding data to Google. That’s counterintuitive, right?
But consider the hidden constraints of automated bidding strategies:
- A Finite Number of “Ready Buyers.”
Smart bidding seems to zero in on that smaller, bottom-of-funnel audience it knows will convert today. It’s fantastic at milking the final stage of the funnel—great for short-term sales—but terrible at opening the floodgates to incremental reach. - Bidding Inflation to Maintain ROAS/CPA.
Once Google’s algorithm has dialed into the “sure bets,” it begins aggressively price-fixing those clicks. You raise your budget, your CPC soars, and your net-new clicks barely budge. You’ve basically tapped out the same 10 people that machine learning deems “most likely to convert.” - Illusory Attribution.
Like Fred Vallaeys and Mike Rhodes have pointed out, Google is known to over-report or inflate conversions. And it makes sense: the more we rely on these metrics inside the platform, the more we’re willing to pay for them. It’s a recipe for higher spend without necessarily generating net-new revenue.
The Method: Blind Google to “Valuable” Conversions
Here’s the stripped-down version of what I do:
- Swap Out the Primary Conversion Action
In essence, I remove or downgrade my real conversions (purchases, leads, etc.) and often switch to something like YouTube Engagement or another hosted event that rarely—if ever—fires. It’s a “legal” conversion from Google’s perspective, but it’s not going to feed the machine more valuable signals. - Switch to Manual CPC
With no actionable conversion data, Google can’t use a Target ROAS or Target CPA strategy to bid me into a corner. CPC costs revert to a level that’s in line with broad, incremental impressions. Now, I’m free to chase new users and actually scale traffic without the forced CPC hikes. - Track Real Results Elsewhere
This is the crucial piece. If you’re still relying on Google’s in-platform conversions to judge success, you’ll be flying blind. Instead, you need robust first-party data—server-side tracking, CRM data, advanced attribution tools, or direct sales figures. I’ve been experimenting with EdgeMesh to get server-side event data. Other advertisers are using Northbeam or Triple Whale for a similar approach. The point is: don’t rely on the same system that’s incentivized to show you inflated conversion metrics.
Why This Drives Scale and Lowers CPC at the Same Time
- You Skip the Price-Fixed Conversions
If your ROAS goal is pinned to, say, 500%, Google is going to price-fix your CPC to hit that number. When you eliminate the “valuable” conversion from the platform’s optimization routine, it sees less reason to mark up your clicks. - You Capture the Other 90%
Smart bidding is hunting for the 10% who already have a high propensity to buy right now. Removing that data frees you to move up the funnel, attract first-time visitors, and nurture them over time—rather than fighting over the same small pool of “warm” leads. - You Gain True Visibility
By tracking everything off-platform, you’re relying on your real cost-per-acquisition, your actual margin, and the specific LTV (lifetime value) of new vs. returning customers. You’re no longer chasing an in-app conversion that might be double-counted or partially accurate at best.
Potential Pitfalls (and Why You Should Still Consider It)
1. More Vigilant Ad Management
You can’t simply “set and forget” a manual CPC campaign. You have to return to negative keyword management, rigorous search query reviews, and advanced segmentation. If that scares you, you might lean on the “ease” of Performance Max—but you could be sacrificing scale.
2. Longer Sales Cycles
Cutting-edge demand gen advertisers—like Kirk Williams at Zato or Brad Geddes at Adalysis—remind us that scaling up funnel audiences requires time and follow-up touchpoints. Losing that immediate bottom-of-funnel data means some of your conversions will take longer to manifest. Are you ready to manage that via retargeting, email flows, or additional channels?
3. Attribution Complexity
You must have a reliable way to measure real performance. Simple front-end metrics (like CTR or top-level CPA) aren’t enough. If your brand sells on Amazon or has a portion of offline sales, you need a single source of truth that aggregates this cross-channel data. Failing here makes your decisions just as blind as you fear.
Who Should Actually Try This?
I’m not suggesting that everyone—especially those brand new to Google Ads—blindly kill all conversion tracking tomorrow. This strategy is ideal for:
- Advertisers Who’ve Maxed Out
If you’ve poured money into raising budgets, only to see CPC go up and net-new impressions stall, you might be in that “price-fixing” trap. - Brands with Real Attribution in Place
You can’t measure success with guesswork. Have your analytics stack dialed in. - Longer-Lifecycle Products
When your purchase requires research or multiple touchpoints, short-term ROAS tracking can sabotage your growth. Focus on building the funnel instead.
Final Thoughts
To be clear, I’m not anti-Google Ads. I just think the platform has deeply ingrained incentives that favor its revenue over your growth. If you want to truly scale, you need to control your own data, adopt a more traditional marketer’s mindset, and sidestep the traps that automated bidding sets.
Disabling your primary conversion actions—and relying on off-platform data—grants you a new level of freedom. You aren’t competing for the same 10 “bottom-funnel” prospects that your rivals are overbidding on. Instead, you’re forging relationships with the other 90% of the market, winning them over time, and building a more robust pipeline.
It’s a radical departure from how many people approach Google Ads in 2025, but if you’re in a place where you must grow beyond the usual plateaus, this is a road worth exploring. As always, test carefully, watch the real numbers, and be prepared to manage your ads the way we used to—back before we handed the algorithm the keys to the kingdom.
—John Moran